At the beginning of the Covid19 crisis we sat together with the simple question: "What case number can we expect to see tomorrow?". Since the spread of a virus follows an exponential function we decided to fit one. That's it. Hope it helps you to gain a perspective of what might happen, but bear in mind: it is simple a statistical model and we do not claim real cases will continue to follow an exponential function. So use at own risk and stay safe.

Useful resources

Why exponential?
Explanation (german)
Early signs (german)


Prof. Dr. Peter N Posch
Prof. Dr. Peter N Posch, TU Dortmund, FiRRM

Photo Priv. Doz. Frank-Chris Schoebel
Priv. Doz. Dr. Frank-Chris Schoebel, Cardiopraxis

Joerg Schieb
Jörg Schieb, schieb.de


Photo Lars Poppe

Lars Poppe, TU Dortmund, FiRRM

Photo Rudolf Bauer

Rudolf Bauer, Bonn

FR: Aydin Aslan, ES: Miguel Krause


Phone: +49 231-755-4608
Email: info (at) covid-rechner.de

Logo Finance, Risk- & Resource Management, TU Dortmund

Use tool at your own risk but feel free to use it as you like. CC BY 4.0

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Data is updated automatically as reported by Johns Hopkins University. Last update: 02/07/23.
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